Ask the Experts: Tariffs, Trade and What Comes Next

By Simon West

How are global supply chains adapting to the shockwaves of U.S. tariffs, and what comes next? At Breakbulk Europe, leading trade and logistics experts took the stage to answer live audience questions, offering sharp insights on customs challenges, rerouting decisions and evolving sourcing strategies. The session was moderated by Susan Oatway, senior research analyst for breakbulk and project cargo at the Journal of Commerce, and featured speakers Diana Davila, senior vice president of U.S. operations, UTC Overseas; Albert Pegg, vice president, Apollo Breakbulk Experts; Nikki Sayer, managing director, Casper Customs; and Henri Le Gouis, executive vice president of global freight forwarding, GEODIS. Below are edited highlights from the discussion.

From Issue 4, 2025 of Breakbulk Magazine

(8-minute read)

Audience question: What is the most common question you are being asked about tariffs, and what advice can you give them?

Davila: The most common question from our importers in the U.S. is what tariffs they are going to be paying on any given day. And this affects everybody globally. Most people are more concerned about the cost of importing into the U.S. than anything else.

Pegg: Have you got a crystal ball! But really, the most common question is, where do we go from here? And the answer is quite simple: talk to experts in the U.S. who know what’s going on. Don’t just throw a dart to find out the answer. There are people that actually know what could happen, going forward.

Sayer: The problem that we’re facing is actually finding the details – the U.S. trade tariff is not clear at all. And when all the changes are happening, it’s not as if you can just go to one central place to find the information to give to the customers. We try to engage with people who might give us some updates on where we stand. So, again, just talk to people who can try to help. Talk to everybody you can!

Gouis: I think it’s very ambitious to call yourself an expert for this question because the rules are changing so fast. It’s very difficult to give expertise. In the U.S., GEODIS operates four million square meters of warehousing, in which 30% of the products are Chinese origin. The question for us is how we are going to replace these products in the short- and mid-term, knowing they’re essential and cheaper than what you can buy anywhere else.

Audience question: How sustainable is global trade if tariffs are constantly being added, changed, or removed each week, and are you seeing signs of shifts in trade lanes as a result?

Gouis: We have to stay calm, because as logistic providers, we are used to dealing with major external shocks. This (tariff announcement) is one more, which yes, was completely unexpected, but we still have to stay calm. The level of inventories in the U.S. is 15% higher than the same period last year, so we have goods in the world to deal with the situation. We also have to prepare to be agile when the dust settles and when we have more clarity on what the exact ruling will be. Then will come the time for defining the exact supply chain strategy we have to go for.

Oatway: What sort of changes are we expecting to see longer term?

Pegg: Well, I can give examples of changes. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, out of Belgium, in March 2025, the value of the cargo that was imported was US$3.4 billion, which was a whopping 100% more than February 2025, and 46% more than last year. What does that mean? It’s quite simple. Importers are rushing to stock up on essential cargo in the U.S. amid uncertainty over whether a deal with the EU will be reached within the next 90 days. Are those vessels going to sail empty come June, July, August? I don’t know.

Sayer: I’ve been speaking to people about those five-to-ten-year plans that most businesses put in place. The people that we’ve been talking to are saying, yes, all of that is stopping right now. They’re now looking at different countries to trade with that they hadn’t traditionally thought about. So there’s potential for new routes and sourcing goods from different places.

Oatway: Has project cargo been less impacted by the tariffs?

Davila: We haven’t really seen the impact because it’s so short term right now. And projects are planned one, two, maybe five years down the road. But questions are being asked about sourcing. If companies are working on projects right now, they’re estimating what that project is going to cost. So it does put the onus on the owners when they’re pulling together a project. They’re probably delaying or going a little slower to see how all this will work out.

Audience question: Are you concerned about steel and aluminum tariffs, and in particular, the country of origin relating to the composition of steel?

Davila: When importing steel into the U.S., there’s a new component called melt and pour. It’s not just the country of origin where the item is manufactured; you’re required to advise, on entry, the melt and pour origin. And as it’s new, not a lot of manufacturers track this. We have the MTRs (material test reports) that tell us what batch it was, where it was manufactured – but within that, it doesn’t say the origin of the melt and pour of the steel. So that’s a new thing that everybody needs to have on their radar when they’re purchasing steel or aluminum.

Audience question: Is it true that vessels have been diverted or turned back, and what impact will trade disruptions have on capacity and freight costs?

Gouis: What we see at GEODIS is that for the moment, the shipments have remained quite strong, especially in the first quarter. For the moment, we don’t see a major change in the services out of Asia – especially China – to the U.S. There could be some blank sailings to reduce capacity, but I think it’s too early to say there will be a major disruption. In a broader view, you cannot change supply chains overnight – it’s too complex. You cannot replace Chinese capabilities and technology in industry after one day or one month or even one year. So this will take time. Of course, this will eventually change the sourcing strategies of the major shippers. But for this, we need to know what level the tariffs will stay at, and we will know it certainly after the one-to-one discussions in a few months. But for the moment, I think it’s too early to say that we are going to see a major collapse.

Audience question: How hard is it to keep your day-to-day operating systems up to date so you are clearing against the most updated tariffs?

Sayer: It’s about properly understanding the U.S. tariff. We had a customer whose product was partially excluded from the tariff, but it also included a component that wasn’t. They wanted to know how much that non-excluded portion would end up costing them. It’s about trying to ensure that everyone’s still compliant, that the commodity codes that they’re using are correct, and that we’re interpreting the U.S. tariff correctly. It goes back to ensuring you’re talking to the right people to make sure that what you’re doing is right.

Audience question: At what point do you think there’ll be a step back to the long-term approach to bring back manufacturing into the U.S.?

Davila: I believe that we have large numbers of individuals within our government and within associations that are really pushing for manufacturing to come back to the U.S. We realize that we don’t have enough stuff onshore. So, is manufacturing coming back to the U.S.? Yes. Even after the four years are over, manufacturing will come back. We’re seeing it slowly – we’ve already got a lot of investment. And I think in time there’ll be some major exports and alongside, some major infrastructure for that.

Gouis: I think mid-term, yes, maybe there could be more industry in the U.S. Short-term, there is certainly a potential recession because nobody is able to absorb the price increase resulting from these tariffs. So, we as logistics providers cannot, for sure. So, we have to pass on to the final customers. And this will definitely increase the cost for the products imported. I don’t see any other consequences.

Audience question: How can businesses effectively communicate the impact of tariffs to their clients?

Pegg: The first thing they do is talk to their American counterparts and try to find out what’s the best way forward. That’s the only thing they can do. And then dig deeper and try to get a proper answer and bring that to their customers. And that’s why we’re in a global network of freight forwarders that help out each other.

Davila: You have to state the facts. And we all know that things change every day, every minute, every tweet. But when you’re speaking to the customer about what’s going on, you just have to be transparent. We have an influx of new inquiries, and I feel like shippers want different answers. As long as you give the right answers that are available, I think that’s how we communicate and make sure that everything flows correctly.

Sayer: It’s about honesty. We were struggling with the tariff – we weren’t promising that we knew all the answers. Yes, we’re the customs experts, but this is completely new. We immediately went out to all our customers who were shipping to the U.S. and said, do you need any help? It’s about partnerships and communicating with each other.

Audience question: There’s been a strong increase in bonded warehousing demand in light of the tariffs. Is this just a short-term trend?

Davila: By shipping cargo to a bonded warehouse, you still pay the duties at the time it enters the warehouse – you’re not changing the amount you have to pay. The advantage is that the unexpected duty doesn’t have to be paid today. If you quoted a customer to pay duties at 2% but when it arrives it’s 35%, you have a little leeway – you put the cargo into a bonded warehouse and you don’t pay the duty until you pull it out. So it’s buying you time to pay. Or you can hope that the tariff will be reduced, and it will have a retroactive effect on it.

Audience question: How are you planning to cope with uncertainty in the long term?

Gouis: The key is to buy your time until we have good visibility. I would not suggest playing with the rules, because at the end of the day who’s going to pay the fine? But once we have visibility we can talk with our customers and put in place the right supply chain strategy.

Sayer: We’ve talked a lot about U.S. tariffs, but there are obviously other trade agreements out there as well, which means other opportunities for doing business.

Pegg: Indeed, opportunities! We see now there are other continents besides North America. Every crisis is an opportunity, and people are looking at other destinations.

Davila: I do believe that out of challenges come good things, so there is a lot of good trade that can happen between countries without the U.S. I’ve seen several companies that have said, now we have to sell to other places. And it challenges us to really look at what we’re doing on a day-to-day basis – where we’re buying from and making sure our terms are applicable. We’re definitely looking a lot longer term than short term. And this is good for the new generation, because they’re the ones who are going to be working with this going forward.

Read more: Diana Davila – The Thrill of Making the Impossible Possible

Top photo (L-R): Albert Pegg, Diana Davila, Susan Oatway, Nikki Sayer, Henri Le Gouis. Credit: Richard Theemling
Second: Susan Oatway, Henri Le Gouis. Credit: Richard Theemling
Third: Henri Le Gouis, Nikki Sayer, Albert Pegg, Diana Davila. Credit: Richard Theemling