Foresight in Project Logistics

Professor Sven Hermann, founder and managing director of logistics consulting firm ProLog Innovation, presents the first in a new series of thought-provoking articles that explore the future world of work in breakbulk and project logistics. Watch out for new installments, published in the first issue of BreakbulkONE each month.

While dealing with growing uncertainties and getting through challenging times, it feels even harder to use our optimism and positivity to describe how a desirable future of project logistics might and should look like.

And when it comes to difficult questions and the wish to answer them easily, ChatGPT seems to be the obvious choice these days. The best artificial intelligence, or AI, chatbot ever released publicly to date was built by OpenAI, a US-based tech firm also responsible for tools such as DALL-E 2, the awesome image generator launched last year.

So, I asked ChatGPT: “What will be the future of project logistics?”

The answer: “It is difficult to predict the exact future of project logistics, but it is likely that technology will continue to play a major role in improving the efficiency and effectiveness of logistics operations. Advancements in areas such as automation, data analytics and the Internet of Things (IoT) are expected to drive innovation in project logistics. In addition, there may be an increased focus on sustainability and reducing the environmental impact of logistics operations. This could include the use of electric or autonomous vehicles, as well as the implementation of more efficient routing and scheduling systems.

There might also be an increased demand for specialized logistics services, such as the transportation of oversized or heavy cargo, as well as the need for logistics providers to have a global presence to support the movement of goods and materials around the world. Overall, the future of project logistics is likely to be characterized by a continued drive to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and minimize the environmental impact of logistics operations through the use of technology and other innovations.”

Maybe a bit vague but not so different to an average conference statement. And ChatGPT is right, it is difficult to predict the exact future of project logistics.

So, should we stop thinking about the far-off future or at least wait for the next version GPT-4 or alternatives from Google or other competitors that might give us a concrete answer about how project logistics will look like in 10 years, and help us spot future opportunities? No! Foresight is not about identifying a single future; the aim is to explore multiple open futures.

It is about creating a different understanding of the future, the development of a mindset which is based on the intrinsic and continuous will to develop a desirable future. For any organization this kind of foresight mindset is worthwhile and an important success factor.

The process of future thinking and storytelling of positive scenarios includes learning about trends, technologies, possible changes and making our own predictions. It helps to empower the organization in analysing and understanding tomorrow's driving forces. An approach based on participation and creativity and the potential to create a shared and forward-looking vision as well as a resilient and an open-minded culture within the company.

It is also the most important condition to be innovative, to see the opportunities where others who are less forward-looking only speak about the challenges.

Companies are well advised to invest in this topic and make it a priority. Even more so given the current decade, with the switch from the co-called VUCA to the BANI world. BANI, which stands for Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, Incomprehensible and goes back to Jamais Caisco from the Institute of the Future, might fit better to our ongoing so-called "age of chaos".

In these upcoming articles we would like to offer an impression of how an open development process of desirable scenarios for the future of project logistics could look like, and the lessons for today we can get out of it.

One of the participants, Thomas Dahmen, MD at Siempelkamp Logistics and Service, summarized the importance and main aspects of our selected topics: “The world of work is currently experiencing extreme changes. Shortage of work skills, use of AI and extensive automation will make this shift extensive within the next years. We might see a far higher level of team decentralization, remote work at any place in the world. And when it comes to sustainability, project logistics is unfortunately only making slow progress. This needs to change in the near future. Still being defensive or reactive about this topic will definitely be risky for any logistics service provider.”

Our process of developing desirable scenarios – divided into the parts Sustainability, Modularization, Connectivity, and New Work – is supported by a wide range of technology and industry experts and will be expanded by an online survey about the changing world of work in cooperation with Breakbulk Events & Media and NBS Northern Business School, as well as a concluding discussion at Breakbulk Europe this June in Rotterdam.

To sum up by with a quote from Confucius: “If man does not think about what lies in the far future, he will regret it in the near future.”

The next instalment of Sven’s series – “A sustainable future of project logistics” – will be published February 24.

IMAGE 1: “Navigating through troubled waters”, Sven Hermann, via DALL-E
IMAGE 2: “Crystal Ball for the Future of Logistics”, Sven Hermann, via DALL-E
IMAGE 3: “Thinking about the far future”, Sven Hermann, via DALL-E