How High Rollers Play for Critical Minerals

By Leslie Meredith

Five global powers are reshaping the future through critical minerals. If you want to understand where the world is headed and why decisions made today will impact industries and alliances tomorrow, start here.

From Issue 5, 2025 of Breakbulk Magazine.

(6-minute read)

Think of the critical minerals race as a high-stakes poker game. The players know the odds, guard their hands and raise strategically because what’s on the table is the future of global power.

The cards are lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earths and other critical minerals, and the stakes are the future of electric vehicles, digital tech, defense, along with the world’s ability to decarbonize. At this high-stakes table sit 51 countries plus the EU trading bloc, each angling for leverage in the minerals game.

But when the chips are tallied, five dominate the table: China, the United States, Australia, the European Union and Indonesia. Their high-impact moves, often colliding strategies and strategic alignments are redefining how the world sources, processes and controls critical minerals.

But all critical minerals are not designated as such around the world, or even among our five key players. While lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements and graphite are deemed critical almost everywhere, other minerals may not be “critical” in some countries because of things like domestic production and strategic priorities.

For instance, copper ranks as critical to Australia and Indonesia, but not to the U.S. because it has plenty of it. The reverse is true for platinum group minerals, which are the rarest on Earth. China includes more specialty metals to support its industrial and defense manufacturing priorities, while Indonesia zeroes in on controlling the world’s largest supply of nickel. The EU focuses on minerals essential to the green economy, one of its top development initiatives.

Because a critical designation is self-determined, it can change. If a technology is developed that relies on a mineral not widely perceived as critical, you’d see a quick pivot among those with abundant reserves and those that wanted to develop the new technology. And voilà! Critical mineral lists would be expanded.

Player Profiles

Let’s take a closer look at our five top players to understand their strategies, including recent moves they’ve made to improve their game. We’ve named each of them to make it easier to remember their roles in the global supply chain for critical minerals.

China: The House

China runs the game. To understand the magnitude of China’s investment into the critical minerals sector, the country has spent nearly US$14 billion per year since 2022 to expand geological exploration for strategic minerals. In addition, it has invested in refining and processing, creating midstream bottlenecks where they control the output.

This year China launched initiatives to further increase its control over rare earths. It is expanding refining capacity in Inner Mongolia where it already processes 80% of global rare earths. In May, China restricted exports and banned foreign investment in rare earths, gallium, germanium, graphite and antimony. China brings its state banks, state-owned enterprises and global deal-making into the mix to ensure it retains its indispensable position despite foreign policy threats and tariffs.

United States: The Gambler

The U.S. has shifted from a passive buyer to a tough, proactive player, using the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act, and strategic deals to diversify supply sources, exert leverage, and secure future resources through creative partnerships.

Its standout 2025 move was a minerals pact with Ukraine that created a joint fund to develop and share future revenues from lithium, cobalt and nickel projects, with U.S. financial and new military aid counted as investment, although implementation and extraction are expected to take time. Further, the U.S. responded to China’s new critical minerals export restrictions by negotiating a trade deal aimed at easing these measures and restarting rare earth exports, but implementation still lags.

Australia: The Dealer

Trusted, resource-rich, and stably aligned, Australia supplies the critical minerals the world depends on, primarily lithium, rare earths and nickel, for batteries, clean energy and advanced technologies.

In 2025, Australia, together with Albemarle Corporation, an American specialty chemicals company and one of the world’s largest lithium producers, expanded the massive Greenbushes lithium mine, further strengthening Australia’s position as a cornerstone of Western critical minerals security.

Australia doesn’t bluff.

It plays by the rules and keeps the supply chain unbroken, making it every alliance’s best partner.

European Union: The Rulemaker

The EU’s bet is on rules, not reserves. Through the Critical Raw Materials Act and a relentless focus on ESG, traceability and recycling, Europe is remaking its market by setting the standards others must meet to get access.

The 2025 enforcement of EV battery mineral recycling across the bloc is forcing suppliers worldwide to upgrade by improving and modernizing their recycling operations and technologies to meet strict EU mandates on efficiency and material recovery. This has begun reshaping trading patterns as suppliers modify their supply chains to align with EU rules. Already, cobalt exporters in the DRC and Zambia are bypassing China and signing new deals with European refiners or certified midstream processors who meet EU standards.

Indonesia: The Opportunist

A bold, resource-driven player, Indonesia holds the world’s largest nickel reserves, estimated at around 55 million metric tons and accounting for roughly 42 to 44% of global supplies. It is also the top global nickel producer, supplying over half of the world’s mined nickel.

In 2025, Indonesia strengthened local content rules on nickel exports, requiring foreign companies to increase investment in downstream processing and value-added industries domestically. This power move aims to develop Indonesia’s battery and electric vehicle supply chains while capturing greater economic benefits from its rich resources.

As China, South Korea and Western buyers rush to negotiate favorable deals, Indonesia demonstrates how resource nationalism and strategic policy enforcement can be a winning hand in reshaping regional and global mineral supply chains.

What’s Behind the Moves?

China’s control of the midstream (the refining and processing stage) gives it leverage even when it doesn’t own the mine. That’s why countries like the U.S. are pouring money into reopening mines, developing new ones and building refineries, and why Australia’s role as a stable supplier has become more valuable than ever. Every major player is either trying to bypass or control this bottleneck.

The scramble to sign new mineral pacts reflects a broader realignment of global supply chains. The U.S.- Ukraine deal and EU partnerships in Africa are responses to a growing fear that access to critical minerals could be weaponized, cut off, restricted or priced out, if political tensions rise.

At the same time, resource holders are no longer content to simply export raw materials. Indonesia is forcing foreign companies to build midstream operations inside its borders, while Australia is climbing the value chain through processing expansion and joint ventures with trusted partners. These are two very different strategies aimed at the same goal: securing more influence and profit across the supply chain.

Europe is betting that market power comes not from holding resources, but from controlling the rules. With new mandates on traceability, ESG and recycling, the EU is shaping how others operate. It’s forcing suppliers to adapt or lose access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets. It’s a reminder that power can lie in policy, not just production.

Beneath all of this runs a hard truth. Control over critical minerals is beginning to resemble the fight for oil in the 20th century, and it could become intense enough to spark conflict in volatile places like the DRC, Afghanistan, Myanmar and the South China Sea. The battles may start with trade rules, export controls or sanctions, but history shows how quickly the stakes can escalate when a country’s future depends on access.

Strategic Alliances

Three major blocs are shaping the next round of the minerals game. The Western Bloc, anchored by the U.S., EU, Australia, Canada and Japan, is building a secure supply chain based on traceability and shared standards. China leads a second team, drawing strength from long-term resource deals and its dominance in mineral processing, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia.

As tensions between China and the U.S. escalate, which are largely driven by trade disputes, our table is clearly divided. Pressure is mounting for countries to choose a side. A third, nonaligned group, including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan, is leveraging their resources to strike deals with both teams. But how long can that neutrality hold?

Some are already signaling their choice. Both Zimbabwe and Indonesia have used Chinese capital for the majority of their new processing infrastructure, while the DRC (a country dominated by Chinese investment) this year signed a Ukraine-style minerals agreement with the U.S., granting American access to cobalt reserves in exchange for support on local conflicts. Expect more alliances to form based on trade deals and security guarantees.

No Seats Available

But not every country gets a seat at the table. Russia, heavily sanctioned and politically sidelined by the West, holds vast mineral reserves but finds itself increasingly cut off from major markets and partnerships. For now, Afghanistan is also banned from this game despite its significant reserves of lithium. However, China has shown interest in Afghanistan’s resources over the past several years, according to multiple sources, but no official deals have been announced. In this game, even a full house won’t help if no one will play with you.

The impact of soaring mineral demand on mining activity in the Americas will be a key talking point at a panel session at Breakbulk Americas 2025. “Mining Momentum: Critical Minerals and Project Cargo Opportunities” will take place on the main stage on Wednesday, Oct. 1 from 12:45pm-1:30pm.