Inside the Global Critical Minerals Race

By Breakbulk Staff

Gavin Erasmus, head of mining at DHL Global Forwarding, discusses rising risks in mining projects, the impact of decarbonization and geopolitics, and how logistics solutions are adapting to secure critical minerals in today’s volatile landscape.

From Issue 5, 2025 of Breakbulk Magazine

(3-minute read)

Q: What changes are you seeing across the mining sector?

GE: From my vantage point, the mining sector is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by the twin forces of sustainability and technological innovation. We’re seeing a massive shift toward decarbonization efforts, with companies scaling up renewable energy integration and smart operations to cut emissions — something I’ve observed firsthand in projects where solar-powered haul trucks are becoming standard in remote sites.

AI and automation are revolutionizing efficiency, helping reduce costs and improving safety in ways that weren’t feasible even five years ago; for instance, predictive maintenance on equipment like Sandvik crushers is now AI-driven, minimizing downtime in aftermarket supply chains.

There’s also a surge in demand for critical minerals like lithium, copper and rare earths to fuel the energy transition, with global projections showing a 6% industry growth in 2025. Supply chains are fragmenting due to geopolitical tensions, leading to more localized or “friend-shored” sourcing. We’ve managed shipments rerouted from Asia to North America to avoid disruptions.

Consolidation is rampant, with megadeals in 2024-2025 reshaping the landscape as majors acquire juniors to secure assets. On the ground, this means more emphasis on portfolio management and agility, as companies actively reshape supply chains to handle volatility. Overall, it’s a sector that’s smarter, greener, but more interconnected with global issues like climate risks and resource stewardship.

Q: Would you say projects carry more risk, less risk or about the same as they did a few years ago? Why?

GE: I’d say mining projects carry more risk now than they did a few years ago. Definitely higher than in, say, 2020- 2022, when the focus was more on post-pandemic recovery. The reasons boil down to escalating geopolitical turbulence, climate vulnerabilities and supply chain disruptions, which are amplifying uncertainties in ways that demand constant adaptation.

Geopolitics is the top disruptor, with mineral supply chains fragmenting amid trade wars and “America First” policies extending into the sector, creating barriers that weren’t as pronounced before. In my experience, this has led to delays in project cargo shipments. I’ve seen consignments of heavy mining equipment stuck at ports due to new export controls on critical minerals.

Climate risks are compounding this, with extreme weather like droughts and floods hiking operational costs and logistics challenges; for example, rising sea levels are affecting coastal mine sites in Indonesia and Australia, something that’s costlier now than in prior years.

Inflation in mining costs, stagnant productivity, and the urgent push for energy transition are also inflating risks, as projects face higher scrutiny on ESG factors. That said, project spending remains robust — nearly twice the 2017 lows — showing resilience, but the overall risk profile is elevated, requiring more innovative hedging in supply chains.

Q: How are logistics and project cargo solutions evolving to meet the challenges of today’s critical minerals projects?

GE: Logistics and project cargo in critical minerals are evolving toward greater resilience, digitalization and specialization to tackle the unique hurdles of these projects, like remote locations, regulatory hurdles and geopolitical choke points. In my 30+ years, I’ve seen a shift from traditional bulk shipping to sophisticated, multi-modal solutions that prioritize security and traceability.

One key evolution is the adoption of traceability systems in supply chains, using blockchain and AI to track minerals from mine to market, helping comply with emerging due diligence requirements and mitigate risks from weaponized exports, as seen with China’s gallium controls.

At DHL Industrial Projects, we are constantly innovating our internal technology platform for project cargo planning, allowing real-time rerouting of oversized loads like wind turbine components. Costs are up over 30% due to regulations and tensions, so solutions now include mineral hubs — centralized processing centers that streamline transport and reduce vulnerabilities in global chains.

Regional corridors, like the Middle Corridor in Central Asia, are being digitized with unified tariffs to speed up exports of cobalt and copper, cutting delays that plagued older routes. We’re also seeing more investment in sustainable transport, such as low-emission vessels for heavy-lift cargo, to align with the sector’s decarbonization goals. Overall, it’s about building agile, secure networks.

Q: With the growing importance of critical minerals security, where do you see opportunity for project developers and the project cargo community?

GE: Critical minerals security is opening tremendous opportunities for project developers and the project cargo community, particularly in diversification, partnerships and infrastructure buildout. As nations scramble to secure supplies — think the U.S. aiming to triple demand by 2040 — the focus is on creating reliable, domestic or allied chains, which plays right into our strengths at DHL.

For developers, the big wins are in government-backed funding and streamlined approvals; initiatives like the U.S. Presidential Memorandum and Canada’s Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund are accelerating projects with billions in support, from pre-feasibility to production. This includes R&D for alternatives to rare earths, reducing dependency on single sources.

Opportunities also lie in shared prosperity models, like ASEAN’s demand-supply frameworks starting in 2025, where developers can partner for sustainable extraction and local value addition. For the project cargo community, it’s about capitalizing on the need for secure logistics: investing in specialized transport for high-value minerals, like armored convoys or air freight for urgent rare earths and collaborating on hubs that integrate mining with processing and export.

Programs like the Minerals Security Partnership are catalyzing investments in responsible chains, creating niches for us to handle end-to-end solutions. In my experience, this means more long-term contracts for cargo professionals, as developers seek partners who can navigate geopolitics and ensure supply continuity, ultimately turning security challenges into growth avenues.

The impact of soaring mineral demand on mining activity in the Americas will be a key talking point at a panel session at Breakbulk Americas 2025. “Mining Momentum: Critical Minerals and Project Cargo Opportunities” will take place on the main stage on Wednesday, Oct. 1 from 12:45pm-1:30pm.

Top photo: A DHL Global Forwarding mining operation in Argentina. Credit: DHL