Global Outlook 2026: Cargo With a Conscience

Will new fuels, tighter regulations and digital tools finally push the sector toward real change? GEODIS’s Luke Mace shares how meaningful emissions reductions can be achieved most immediately, while Methanex’s Roger Strevens reacts to the IMO’s decision to postpone the adoption of its net-zero framework.

From Issue 6, 2025 of Breakbulk Magazine

(2-minute read)

Luke Mace, senior vice president, freight forwarding / project logistics, GEODIS

One of the main challenges lies in finding a balance between growth ambitions and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a clear imbalance between transit times and cost efficiency versus customer expectations.

If we look at short-term and impactful actions, it’s about using the most efficient solutions available today, such as prioritizing sea or rail transport over air whenever possible, selecting the most energy-efficient aircraft or vessels (for example through GEODIS AirSmart), increasing the use of available low-carbon fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), sustainable marine fuel (SMF) or hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), which can reduce GHG emissions by up to 80%, and ensuring space utilization so we don’t ship empty space.

GEODIS AirSmart is a great illustration. The company has recently launched this new low-carbon airfreight solution, designed to significantly reduce GHG emissions by optimizing aircraft performance and routing. By selecting the most energy-efficient aircraft and leveraging external flight data and advanced analytics, GEODIS AirSmart enables smarter routing decisions and enhances performance.

This innovation represents a major step forward in GEODIS’s journey toward decarbonization and supports customers in achieving their climate goals. With GEODIS AirSmart we can achieve up to 40% reduction in GHG emission per shipment.

Roger Strevens, director, low carbon regulation and advocacy, Methanex

In mid-October, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) held a meeting to consider the adoption of the Net Zero Framework (NZF), the regulatory package that is intended to deliver on the goals of its 2023 GHG strategy, which was unanimously supported by member states. The NZF had been approved, the first step in the regulatory process, by a large majority back in April at Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 83.

However, due to widely reported pressure from the U.S., many member states changed their positions. The outcome was that a vote was called to adjourn the adoption meeting by a year, and it was carried 57-49.

While adjournment of the adoption meeting was disappointing to many, it is important to note the NZF has not been rejected, rather member states are not in a position to adopt it yet. Critically, there is now time to develop the NZF to a point where there is consensus for adoption.

It is important for the IMO not to lose momentum. Work continues on the supporting guidelines, and the IMO Secretariat will consult closely with member states to determine the best path forward. The consistent support from global shipping organizations highlights the industry’s readiness to advance sustainability and clean fuels. A unified global approach for a global industry is economically and environmentally preferable to fragmented regulations that are separated by national and regional borders.

For breakbulk shipping companies, the NZF deferral may temporarily pause decisions around retrofitting or ordering vessels for alternative fuels, but it also offers a window to monitor developments like the upcoming review of FuelEU Maritime. Given the long-term nature of fleet investments, it remains prudent to anticipate the growing prominence of decarbonization regulations.

In this context, methanol stands out as a compelling option for breakbulk vessels due to its favorable overall cost, lower complexity and minimal impact on cargo space. It is compatible with tramp operations due to the relatively low cost of port infrastructure needed, making it an attractive choice. Methanex is committed to supporting shipping companies as they navigate these decisions.

In summary, given that the shipping industry wants to progress and leading clean fuel producers are poised to deliver, the pace of political alignment will be crucial for future progress.

Read more in our Global Outlook 2026 series:

Powering Into the New Year

Navigating Uncertainty

Shifting Opportunities

Tech Talk

Why Your Region Rocks!

Top photo: GEODIS completed a groundbreaking project in 2025 that set the record for the heaviest cargo to move down Colombia's Magdalena River. Credit: GEODIS