Global Outlook 2026: Navigating Uncertainty

Project logistics faces a world in flux, from geopolitical strains and shifting trade dynamics to infrastructure limitations and stricter regulation. We asked industry leaders what challenges will shape the industry in 2026 and how companies can stay ahead to keep projects and cargo on track.

From Issue 6, 2025 of Breakbulk Magazine.

(2-minute read)

Geanean Ordonez, project logistics manager, Technip Energies

On a geopolitical level, we will see the same challenges in 2026 that we are currently facing. Globally, Israel seems to have struck a peace treaty with Gaza, and we remain cautiously hopeful this remains in place. Otherwise, we could see another blockade at the Suez Canal. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues, resulting in sanctions hindering sourcing of supplies and exports from that region. The U.S. continues to revise tariffs, USTR vessel fees are imminent, and import documentation is more complex than ever. And China continues to pivot and remain competitive.

The project outlook in 2026 is modest now, but the pipeline of upcoming projects will keep everyone busy for the foreseeable future between 2027 and 2030. As a result, we anticipate suppliers’ orderbooks will be full during this period. Procurement teams should be working with suppliers now to get on their orderbooks ahead of this coming busy season. Compliance teams should be actively working with their procurement teams and suppliers to ensure documentation is adequate to meet the CBP requirements for entry into the U.S. They should be monitoring the derivatives list and providing a framework for suppliers to properly report steel and aluminum content.

We do expect the dust to begin to settle on the topic of tariffs in the U.S. in 2026. At which time we will finally have some clarity and can provide some assurance and solid guidance for our clients. Take this opportunity to review lessons learned and prepare your teams for the coming wave!

Mohammad Jaber, CEO, Combi Lift Projects MEA

The breakbulk and project cargo industry is heading into 2026 with no shortage of challenges and opportunities. The sector is being tested by a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, economic headwinds and logistical constraints. Globally, we’re seeing continuing supply chain volatility, limited vessel capacity and rising project costs driven by inflation, the energy transition and tighter environmental regulations. Decarbonization and environmental, social and governance (ESG) commitments are reshaping fleet deployment, while financing for capital-intensive projects or logistics modern assets is getting harder to secure.

Infrastructure congestion and a global shortage of specialized equipment and skilled crews are further stretching timelines and costs. Yet, the Middle East, especially the Gulf, remains a growth engine. Massive investment in renewables, downstream industries and mega-projects is keeping the region vibrant. But disruptions in the Red Sea, sanctions, higher fuel prices and interest cost and shifting China–Gulf–Europe trade routes are forcing everyone to rethink logistics strategies.

To stay ahead, Combi Lift is investing heavily in robotics, AI and automation. Digitalization is not a luxury anymore. It’s how we offset inflation, boost efficiency and stay competitive. Real-time visibility, predictive maintenance and smarter capacity use will define the winners. Ultimately, success in 2026 will belong to companies that combine agility, technology and deep regional understanding — a balance Combi Lift is determined to lead!

Grant Wattman, president, Jade Management Group

Recently I was asked for one word that I would use to describe 2026. My answer was “dynamic.” Not one big challenge, but many, many challenges. Whether they be workforce management, net-zero emissions, supply chain disruptions, regulatory and trade complexity, technology and digital transformation or just simply rising costs in an inflationary period. Wrap these issues with geopolitical shifts and unrest, global trade wars and changing markets, and you have a mosaic of interconnected challenges in the industrial, capital project markets.

If I could pull one word from these challenges, it would be “indecision.” Guilty parties primarily being governments and regulators. Not always indecisive due to too many choices, but indecisive to disrupt the market and drive policy globally. Our industry is resilient and nimble. It can adapt quickly in realigning its global supplier base and trade routes, regardless of the decisions being made. Just make a decision!

The long-term market is looking to increased project cargoes of all types. Unpredictability pushes major capital investments forward. Delaying decisions for one year does little, if anything, to minimize the disruptions. Overall, this could dampen global growth, resulting in cargo demand retrenching and vessel capacity increasing.

As a mentor of mine coached me: be agile, iterate, iterate, iterate and be comfortable with being uncomfortable. What an exciting time to be in our business!

Read more in our Global Outlook 2026 series:

Powering Into 2026

Top photo: Technip Energies is a key partner in the expansion and modernization of Egypt's Middle East Oil Refinery (Midor). Credit Technip Energies