Global Outlook 2026: Powering Into the New Year

As 2026 approaches, the breakbulk and project cargo market is evolving rapidly. Soaring demand from the energy and power sectors is tempered by structural challenges and shifting policy landscapes. In this section, industry leaders share their outlook on growth and the forces shaping the year ahead.

From Issue 6, 2025 of Breakbulk Magazine.

(2-minute read)

Ulrich Ulrichs, CEO, BBC Chartering

As we look ahead to 2026, the business outlook for breakbulk and project cargo remains cautiously optimistic, both globally and within our key markets. The sector continues to benefit from a relatively balanced supply-demand scenario, supported by reasonable freight and charter rate levels. Fleet renewal is underway, with new vessels joining our operations while older tonnage is gradually phased out.

Energy-related cargoes, particularly from the wind energy, oil and gas and mining sectors, remain the primary drivers of demand. These segments continue to generate robust volumes, reinforcing their role as the backbone of our industry’s growth.

Globally, we anticipate markets to maintain a decent performance. That said, Europe faces structural challenges, including sluggish economic growth, high energy and labor costs, and the increasing impact of environmental regulations such as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime. These factors are beginning to weigh more heavily on operational margins and competitiveness.

The U.S. market presents a more complex picture. Trade volumes are under pressure due to shifting policy landscapes, with tariffs on commodity imports, restrictions targeting specific countries and sanctions on vessels built in China introducing a layer of unpredictability. Moreover, renewable energy projects in the U.S. are encountering delays and potential cancellations, further clouding the outlook.

Geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts continue to cause uncertainty in global trade flows. These factors will surely continue to be visible in 2026, requiring agility, foresight and resilience from industry stakeholders.

Kyriacos Panayides, CEO, AAL Shipping

The global wind energy industry is projected to expand by an average of 8.8% annually, adding a total of 982 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity (both onshore and offshore) over the next five years. For onshore wind, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) projects annual installations of around 138 GW, with China set to account for close to half, and Europe at a distant second with 15%. Meanwhile, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of offshore wind is estimated to be at 27%, again led by China and Europe.

In Europe alone, more than 51 GW of offshore wind capacity is scheduled to be built between 2025 and 2030, with the UK contributing approximately 42%. Looking ahead, we expect demand for power to increase by about 80% in the next 25 years, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 60% of that growth. At the same time, natural gas power capacity is projected to increase by 38 GW per year from 2025 to 2050.

In the medium term, we expect shipping demand linked to power generation to grow as countries reduce emissions from coal and other traditional sources. At the same time, the rapid expansion of AI-linked infrastructure is accelerating global electricity consumption. These dual trends reinforce the need for cleaner, more efficient energy generation and, by extension, smarter, more specialized shipping solutions.

Danny Levenswaard, director of Breakbulk, Port of Rotterdam Authority

The Port of Rotterdam expects a resilient and forward-looking breakbulk and project cargo market in 2026. Several key factors contribute to this outlook, with energy transition the real growth driver. Rotterdam is seeing increasing volumes of components related to offshore wind, hydrogen infrastructure and carbon capture projects. These developments are fueling demand for complex and heavy cargo logistics.

We’re seeing this stable growth despite market volatility. In the first half year of 2025 other general cargo increased by 3% to 3.2 million tons. This increase was due in part to the delivery of offshore wind foundations, steel conduits for the Porthos carbon capture and storage (CCS) project and increased transshipment of steel plates for the offshore industry.

Still, challenges remain, especially those that relate to workforce and skills. The ability to attract and retain skilled labor remains key, especially as cargo types become more complex and specialized.

Read more in our Global Outlook 2026 series:

Navigating Uncertainty

Top photo: BBC HOUSTON passes through St. Lambert Lock, Canada. Credit: BBC Chartering