Nov 18 | 2024
Who Wins and Who Loses in This Changing Landscape
Skip to: suspend offshore wind development, boost oil and gas projects, cut funding for the CHIPS and Science Act, bringing the supply chain home, climate regulation rollback
To predict his presidential actions, campaign rhetoric gives us a starting point, but it’s the specifics—like decisions from his first term in office and his current cabinet picks—where we can determine the likeliest results.
Trump will not start with a blank slate. Well before the election, companies have made moves that point to the direction the industry will take. Take the energy transition: despite the highly publicized commitments to green energy – a move away from fossil fuels – oil and gas projects are at the top of the list for financial approval, a trend that started not with Trump but with the need for energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump and his appointees will have the power to accelerate or slow conditions that exist in the market. Where will he accelerate development and where will he apply the brakes?
Here’s a breakdown of five actions to anticipate—and who stands to win or lose.
1. Suspend offshore wind development
Higher interest rates have made financing more expensive, supply chain disruptions have led to higher prices for components and materials, and contracts with utilities to sell electricity at low fixed prices are no longer viable.
Recent offshore lease auctions have met with mixed results. In the government’s first offshore wind auction for the Gulf of Mexico in 2023, only one of the three leases received bids. A second auction was canceled last summer due to lack of interest, but unsolicited interest from two parties has been submitted for consideration. Two bidders were successful for leases off the coast of Maine, but Oregon’s floating offshore wind auction was canceled due to insufficient bidder interest. Trump’s action might only accelerate the inevitable for now, but market conditions could become more favorable under a wind-friendly administration in the future.
Which sector would be most affected?
Ports with expansion plans or construction underway to support offshore wind development, including New York's $417 million commitment to upgrade existing and construct new ports for offshore wind. The impact will vary by project construction timetables and the appetite for betting on the viability of offshore wind in the years following the expected hiatus.
2. Boost oil and gas projects
It should come as no surprise that oil and gas projects represent the most investment in the project pipeline in the U.S., along with a continuing wave of renewable projects. While Trump may be known for his energy policy shorthand “Drill, baby, drill,” the industry has already embraced that strategy.In Breakbulk's 2025 Outlook, the Energy Industries Council writes, “The sector’s high profit margins have encouraged operators like BP, Shell and Total to continue investing in oil and gas projects. Contractors are similarly retrenching in the sector, seeing greater certainty and profitability compared to renewable energy and clean technology projects.” Follow the money, and it leads us directly to oil and gas projects–upstream, midstream and downstream.
Expect liquified natural gas (LNG) permit applications to be reviewed and approved quickly, reversing the recent Biden administration’s "pause." Reuters in November reported Norway’s Crown LNG is rushing to develop a liquefied natural gas export plant offshore Texas before Trump's second term ends in 2029. The International Energy Agency projects North America’s LNG export capacity to more than double between 2024 and 2028 from 10 projects under construction – five of which are in the U.S., which is already the world’s top LNG producer.
Similarly, Trump could increase offshore oil and gas lease sales by tenfold compared to the current Biden administration program, including waters off Alaska, the Atlantic coast and new areas in the Gulf of Mexico. The current Bureau of Ocean Management plan for 2024-2029 calls for just three new leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
Trump has named Doug Burgum his nominee for Secretary of Interior, a job that will put him in charge of hundreds of millions of acres of federal land and U.S. waters. This will be key to the Trump administration’s plans to boost oil and gas production. But there’s one thing that sets Burgum apart from Trump: his support for climate goals. As governor of North Dakota, he pledged to make the state carbon-neutral by 2030, and has championed carbon capture and storage as a means to do it.
Which sectors would benefit most?
Offshore, the Offshore Supply Vessel sector will be the first to benefit from expanded offshore leasing because these vessels are essential throughout all stages of offshore projects, from exploration to ongoing production. This increased activity could lead to fleet expansion and reactivation of idle vessels, while the opening of new leasing areas could create new markets for OSV operators.
Onshore, oilfield service companies should prosper along with EPCs, project forwarders, pipeline fabricators, rig builders and the specialized transporters to move the equipment to the sites. For downstream projects, EPCs, forwarders and ocean carriers will win since most of the large components are manufactured overseas.
3. Cut funding for the CHIPS and Science Act
Trump called the CHIPS Act "so bad" during a campaign interview, but this seemingly contradictory opinion – after all, the CHIPS Act is designed to encourage domestic manufacturing of computer chips rather than relying on imports from Asia – reflects Trump’s preference for tariffs over subsidies to spur domestic manufacturing.
The CHIPS Act provides $52 billion in subsidies for building or expanding semiconductor manufacturing facilities, known as fabs. To date, more than half of the subsidies have been distributed to eight companies, leaving $22.6 billion to disburse. Instead of subsidies, Trump wants tariffs on chip imports, arguing that high tariffs would compel companies to establish chip factories in America "for nothing.” Further, manufacturers in the U.S. are eligible for a 25% investment tax credit for capital expenses related to manufacturing semiconductors, including equipment, which aligns with Trump’s vow to cut corporate taxes from 21% to 15% if goods are produced in the U.S.
The subsidies and credit reveal only a part of the economic picture. As of August 2024, companies had announced more than 90 new fab manufacturing projects in the U.S., totaling nearly $450 billion in investments across 28 states since CHIPS was introduced in Congress, the Semiconductor Industry Association reported.
Fabs represent a significant source of new business for EPCs and forwarders with the average cost of constructing a single fab at $25 billion.
Expected impact
Even if remaining subsidies are eliminated, the investment credit and new or increased tariffs would likely support continued construction. Add supply chain reliability with domestically-made chips and the benefits should cancel the impact of a subsidy cut. The demand for more powerful chips is near the start of its curve as PCs with “AI chips” come to market – EPCs and forwarders should count on more work in this sector.
Access key insights from the Breakbulk Events & Media 2025 Outlook here - with analytics from the Energy Industries Council (EIC)
4. Bringing the supply chain home
The crux of Trump’s “America First” policy is to produce as many goods as possible in the U.S., stimulating job growth and shielding the country from global disruptions. Central to this strategy is his preference for bilateral trade agreements over multilateral ones, which he demonstrated early in his first presidency by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017. Other than a bilateral agreement with Japan, no trade deals were made with TPP countries after the U.S. withdrawal, creating a void that China eagerly filled.Trump has also signaled potential changes to existing agreements. He has stated his intention to formally notify Mexico and Canada of plans to utilize the six-year renegotiation clause in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which will come into play on July 1, 2026. This could involve curtailing auto imports from Mexico or other measures to secure more favorable terms for the U.S.
But that's not all. He’ll take further measures, promising to Impose a 60% tariff on goods from China and 20% on imports from other countries. The idea is to shift both parts and finished goods from being sourced overseas to being made in the U.S. where labor costs are significantly higher than in other parts of the world like Southeast Asia. However, it will take time to ramp up domestic production, assuming goods can be sold at or below tariffed ones. Either way, the consumer will pay.
Winners and losers
Bringing the supply chain home is good for land-based transport, as well as coastal and inland transport. Ports may see imports decrease, but exports could offset the loss if those cargoes are not hit with retaliatory tariffs. Likewise, container lines could be affected if fewer shipments are coming into the U.S. from Asia and Europe.
Ports may be able to convert some of their facilities to logistics hubs with locally manufactured products stored and then distributed to various parts of the country. There’s no immediate remedy for container shipping – expect a decrease in the frequency of sailings between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
5. Climate regulation rollback
Trump did his share of rolling back environmental regulations in his first term: replacing the Clean Power Plan with the less restrictive Affordable Clean Energy rule, reducing regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas operations, expediting environmental reviews for infrastructure projects, and withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. Expect more of the same from his second term, sending resources back to fossil fuels and fossil-fuel powered plants–accelerating a trend that’s well underway.Even in Europe, major oil and gas companies are reducing their climate targets with little consequence. In 2023, BP reduced its reduction target from 35-40% to 20-30%. Shell may have won the upset of the industry when a Dutch appeals court recently overturned a landmark ruling that had ordered energy company Shell to cut its carbon emissions by net 45% by 2030 compared to 2019.
If the U.S. withdraws again from the Paris Climate Agreement, it would no longer be formally bound to its emissions reduction commitments under the agreement. However, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) calls for the U.S. to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels by 2030. There are no penalties for missing the target. While Trump is no fan ot the IRA, it has already brought jobs and new industries to Republican states. Expect selected cuts like the EV tax break for consumers rather than an attempt to repeal the legislation.
Climate goals aren’t the only measures aimed at cutting emissions, and the U.S. will face pressure abroad if it wants to retain its market share for oil and gas exports. The EU will put new methane emission standards in place for all imported fossil fuels beginning in 2030, and that means the U.S. will have to comply with the as-yet-to-be-announced requirements if it wants to keep Europe as its top LNG export market. Today, 66% of U.S. LNG is exported to Europe.
Trump’s nominee to lead the Environmental Protection Agency former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) will likely back Trump and is skeptical of ambitious climate goals. He supported Trump’s exit from the Paris Climate Agreement. He criticized New York governor Kathy Hochul’s climate targets, saying that the state goal of 70 percent renewables by the end of the decade, was “whimsical.”
Who benefits from reduced or absent climate goals?
EPCs, freight forwarders and transportation providers should all see new business as more oil and gas projects get the greenlight.
On balance
Trump will be good news for the country’s oil and gas industry, accelerating a pragmatic move back to fossil fuels. A second run at bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. could present additional opportunities, especially in the semiconductor sector. What does this mean for breakbulk and project cargo companies? More work.To discuss exhibiting options at Breakbulk Americas 2025, complete this simple form.
